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EUR/USD halts a 2-day rally, surrenders 1.09 handle

Having peaked at 1.0940 levels in opening trades, EUR/USD drifts lower and runs through fresh sellers below 1.09 handle over the last hours as risk-on dominates Asia on stabilizing Chinese equities. 

EUR/USD drops to lows near hourly 200-SMA

Currently, the EUR/USD pair trades 0.44% lower at 1.0884, recovering slightly from fresh session lows of 1.0873 struck near the hourly 200-SMA at 1.0879. The main currency pair halts a 2-day rally and sees steep losses this session as the demand for safe-havens such as the euro was hit on the back risk-on relief rally seen in China’s stock markets, after PBOC fixed USD/CNY rate lower today and the authorities shelved the circuit breaker after the previous sell-off.

Moreover, the US dollar staged a solid come-back against its major competitors on the back of re-emergence of risk-on trades and also markets bid the greenback ahead of the crucial US payrolls data due later in the day.

Meanwhile, in absence of first-tier economic data from the Euro land, markets will watch for second-line of releases viz., the German industrial production and trade balance, before the main risk event for today, the US NFP. 

EUR/USD Technical Levels

In terms of technicals, the pair finds the immediate resistance is seen at 1.0940/42 (daily high/ hourly R2). A break beyond the last, doors will open for a test of 1.0984 (100-DMA). On the flip side, the immediate support is placed at 1.0814/11 (1h 100 & 50-SMA), below which 1.0769 (Jan 7 Low) could be tested.

EUR/USD halts a 2-day rally, surrenders 1.09 handle
EUR/USD 2016-01-08T02:30:00
1.08838/1.08843 (-0.054208509817%)
H1.0887 L1.08775
S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.09056 1.09140 1.09241 1.09426 1.09510 1.09611
Trend Index OB/OS Index
Bullish Overbought


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USD/JPY holds above 118 handle, 5-DMA at 118.57 caps upside

USD/JPY failed to hold at higher levels and slipped despite a relief rally in the Asian indices, especially with a positive opening in China's stock markets supported risk-on environment.

The pair still holds above the 118 handle and is trying to stabilize above the hourly 50-SMA support placed at 118.18.

Stochs on 4hourlies have rolled over from oversold zone with a bullish crossover, MACD also gives a buy on the 4Hourly charts.

A close above 118.30 (major support turned resistance) with support from momentum indicators could see regain of 120 levels.

On the other side a close below 117.72 will take the pair to 116 and then 115.60 levels.

Recommendation: We will wait for confirmation to go long



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USD/CAD hits fresh 12-year high above 1.40, good to buy at dips

Major resistance -1.40018 (Dec 17th High)
Major support - 1.3800
Loonie has broken major resistance 1.40018 and jumped till 1.40393 at the time of writing. It is currently trading around 1.40380.
Any break above 1.40018 confirms major trend reversal a jump till 1.4536/1.4980 is possible.
The policy divergence and decline in oil prices have dragged the Canadian dollar to 12 year low. The market also awaits FOMC minutes meeting for further upmove.
On the lower side major weakness can be seen only 1.3800 and any break below 1.3800 targets 1.3690/1.3550. The minor support is around 1.3980 and break below will drag the pair down till 1.3927/1.3880/1.3800.

It is good to buy at dips around 1.4025-30 with SL around 1.3980 for the TP of 1.4500/1.4980



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USD/CHF: Bulls back in charge, re-takes 1.0100

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The USD/CHF pair found fresh bids near the daily pivot located at 1.0074 and flipped to gains, now retesting 1.01 barrier on its way to five-week highs.

USD/CHF takes-out hourly 20-SMA

Currently, the USD/CHF pair trades 0.12% higher at fresh session highs of 1.0100, jumping-off lows struck at 1.0073, where the daily pivot stands. The rising demand for the US dollar heading into early European trades pushed the USD/CHF higher back towards 1.01 barrier.

Earlier in Asia, the major remained capped below 1.01 handle as the Swiss franc witnessed higher demand in light of falling Asian equities and on underlying flight to safety theme.

Looking ahead, markets will take cues from the sentiment on the European stocks amid a data-light EUR calendar, while the main focus remains on plenty of risk events due later in the US session, including the key FOMC minutes.

USD/CHF Technical Levels

To the upside, the next resistance is located 1.0131/45 (Jan 5 High/ daily R1) levels and above which it could extend gains to 1.0202 (daily R2). To the downside, immediate support might be located at 1.0044 (5-DMA) and below that 1.0025 (50-DMA).

USD/CHF 2016-01-06T06:00:00
1.00965/1.00978 (0%)
H1.00971 L1.00971
S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.00548 1.00651 1.00793 1.01038 1.01141 1.01283
Trend Index OB/OS Index
Bullish Neutral 


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USD/CAD intraday bias upside, trade balance data eye for the day

Uptrend resumed by taking out 1.4000 and reaches as high as 1.4038 so far.
Break of 1.4039 levels may take the pair towards 1.4163 levels.
Oil prices were also down on Tuesday, adding extra pressure on the resource-linked loonie.
In terms of upcoming Canadian releases, traders are monitoring today's trade data, Thursday's speech from Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz, and Friday's employment report.
BOC governor Poloz's speech will be key event this week as it comes two weeks before the next scheduled interest rate announcement and the Monetary Policy Report. Analysts are projecting the central bank will keep the rate at 0.5%.
To the downside immediate support can be seen at 1.3970 levels, a break below will open gates towards 1.3921 levels


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Euro slips on stable risk appetite, World shares calm after China's Stock Market slump

 EUR/USD falls as risk appetite stabilized. -0.5%, plays 1.0840-1.0765.
 USD/JPY off 11-week 118.71 low. 119.70-118.83 range today.
 GBP/USD extends south to fresh 9 mth at 1.4659 from 1.4725.
 Spread between onshore, offshore yuan widest since Sept 2011.
 India cbank likely intervened to curb rupee fall - Traders.
 DAX -0.8%, 10384 to 10173 today.
 UK Dec Markit/CIPS Construction PMI 57.8 vs previous 55.3. 56.0 expected.
 EZ Dec Inflation, flash 0.2% y/y vs previous 0.2%.
 German trade group warns on "erosion" of Europe.
 British PM Cameron to allow ministers to campaign for EU exit.
 Spain's PM sees no alternative to new elections in Catalonia.
 Kuroda: Will to take bold steps if needed for 2% price target.
 India weighs fiscal stimulus in new budget despite fast economic growth.

Economic Data Ahead
 
(0830 ET/1330 GMT) Statistics Canada is scheduled to report producer prices data for November. The data showed a decline of 0.5 percent in October.

(1330 ET/1830 GMT) Major U.S. automakers are set to report sales figures for December, analysts expect auto sales probably to have declined to 18.10 million from 18.19 million in the previous month. Investors wait to see how year-end holiday promotions, Black Friday deals impacted sales.

Key Events AheadNo major events scheduled.FX Beat EUR/USD: The euro slipped towards a 1-month low against the greenback, down a quarter of a percent as risk appetite stabilized following a volatile Monday. The pair has broken major support 1.0800 which confirms major trend reversal a decline till 1.07250/1.0670/1.0620. Short term trend is still weak as long as resistance 1.09050 holds. Any break above 1.0905 will take the pair to next level till 1.0950/1.0980/1.1000. The minor resistance is around 1.0840 and break above target 1.08860/1.0905. Against the yen, the euro fell 0.7 percent to an eight-month low of 128.55 yen. 

USD/JPY: The yen inched up 0.2 percent but stayed off Monday's highs. It has recovered after making a low of 118.69 and was trading around 119.69. The pair's major support is around 118.60 and break below targets 118/117.60. On the higher side it is facing resistance around 119.60 and any break above targets 120/120.40. GBP/USD: Sterling stumbled near a 9-month low against the dollar on Tuesday, with a bullish reading on the construction sector failing to strengthen expectations for higher interest rates in a year set to be dominated by debate over a "Brexit" from Europe. Against a basket of currencies, it was broadly flat, falling 0.2 percent against the greenback and gaining around the same amount against the euro. Sterling traded at $1.4677, compared to Monday's lows of $1.4665. It is facing major resistance around 1.4760 and break above targets 1.4780/1.4820. On the lower side major support is around 1.4650 and break below targets 1.4630/1.4580 level. Overall bullish invalidation is only above 1.4850.

USD/CHF: The pair has broken major resistance 1.00350 and this confirms minor trend line reversal, a jump till 1.0125/1.0180. On the lower side minor support is around 0.9980 and break below targets 0.9945/0.9900 level. The minor resistance is around 1.00850 and break above targets 1.0125/1.0210.

AUD/USD: Australian dollar was flat after dropping more than 1 percent on Monday. It held at $0.7198, having dropped a full U.S. cent on Monday when Chinese shares plunged 7 percent. The pair's support is around 0.7150 and any break below 0.7170 will drag the pair down till 0.7100/0.7050. On the higher side minor resistance is around 0.7250 and any break above will take the pair till 0.7285/0.7305. The Aussie stood near 3-month lows at 85.62 yen and could see a retracement all the way to 81.85 cents touched in September.

NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar was trading at $0.6745 after an overnight fall of 1.1 percent. Equities RecapChina's injection of an estimated $20 billion to stabilize its equity and currency markets drove world shares higher from 2-1/2-month lows on Tuesday.European shares started higher, but the profits quickly evaporated. The FTSE pan-European index remained steady at 1,401 points, Germany's 


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